International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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Epidemiological Analysis of H1N1 Cases in Aurangabad: Age, Gender, and Temporal Trends With Predictive ROC Curve Assessment

Author(s) Mr. SANTOSH SHIVAJIRAO TATHE, Mr. RAVINDRA BALAJI NAKTILE, Mr. SHRIKANT BHANUDAS OVHAR, Mr. MAYUR NAMDEV RAO BHOSLE, Ms. SHALAKA DEEPAK TUPKARI
Country India
Abstract Background: Influenza A (H1N1) continues to pose a global health challenge due to its high mutation rate and seasonal outbreaks. Understanding epidemiological trends is essential for effective surveillance and control measures.
Objective: To analyze the age, gender, and temporal distribution of H1N1 cases in Aurangabad and evaluate predictive performance using ROC analysis.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases from August to October 2022 was conducted. Data were stratified by age and gender, and weekly positivity trends were assessed. The ROC curve was used to evaluate predictive accuracy.
Results: The highest positivity was recorded among middle-aged adults (41–60 years), with females showing a slightly higher positivity rate than males. Peak transmission occurred during mid-August to early September 2022, with a maximum weekly positivity rate of 87.5%. The ROC curve demonstrated excellent predictive ability (AUC = 0.98).
Conclusion: The study highlights the seasonal peak of H1N1 in the monsoon period, with middle-aged and elderly populations being most affected. These findings support strengthening surveillance and vaccination strategies ahead of seasonal peaks.
Keywords H1N1, Influenza A, epidemiology, ROC curve, Aurangabad, seasonal trends, surveillance
Field Medical / Pharmacy
Published In Volume 7, Issue 6, November-December 2025
Published On 2025-11-24
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i06.61584
Short DOI https://doi.org/hbb99z
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