International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

E-ISSN: 2582-2160   •   Impact Factor: 9.24

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Top-up Frequency Forecasting for Lao Telecommunication Company Using Time-Series Analysis

Author(s) Soulixay Phomvongxay, Phouthone Vongpasith, Chitnavanh Phonekhamma, Bounmy Phanthavong
Country Laos
Abstract The study aimed to forecast the top-up frequency for Lao Telecommunication Company (LTC) customers using time-series analysis. Accurate forecasts help the company optimize resource allocation, improve customer service, and boost revenue by anticipating customer demand. The time-series analysis techniques are employed, such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average + exogenous variables (SARIMAX) and exponential smoothing (ETS) models, to analyze historical top-up data. The data is pre-processed, identified patterns, and trained the model to forecast future top-up frequencies. The model's predictions closely aligned with the actual data, indicating its effectiveness. The ARIMA model produced reliable forecasts for short-term top-up frequencies, showing the best performance overall with the lowest RMSE and MAE, and a positive R-squared indicating some ability to explain the data. SARIMAX and EST both perform poorly, with very high RMSE and MAE, and negative R-squared values. The results demonstrated that time-series analysis could enhance decision-making in the telecommunications industry by enabling better forecasting of customer behavior. This helps in optimizing marketing strategies, inventory management, and service availability.
Keywords Time Series, ARMA, SARIMAX, EST
Field Computer
Published In Volume 6, Issue 5, September-October 2024
Published On 2024-09-30
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2024.v06i05.28101
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