A STUDY ON FINANCIAL RISK PREDICTION USING ARIMA

Author(s)	Ms. YUVARANI R, mrs ANISHA J
Country	India
Abstract	This study explores the use of time-series forecasting to predict financial risks in SPR Construction Private Limited. Six years of secondary data covering revenue, borrowings, trade payables, current liabilities, and cash flows were analyzed using an analytical research methodology. Forecasting models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, and Regression techniques were applied, with ARIMA showing the highest accuracy. Results indicate improving revenue and profitability but also reveal rising liabilities and negative financing cash flows, suggesting potential risks. The study highlights the importance of integrating ARIMA forecasting into financial planning to improve risk management and support long-term sustainability.
Keywords	Financial Risk, ARIMA, Forecasting, Time-Series Analysis.
Field	Business Administration
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 3, May-June 2025
Published On	2025-05-16
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i03.44400

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