International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Demand in MOELCI-II Using ARIMA Model

Author(s) Meldelino A. Jalambo, Prince Lloyd L. Saquin, Isidro M. Dalis, Murphy T. Saumat, Melenita M. Rupinta, Ghie B. Demecillo
Country Philippines
Abstract The research addresses the critical challenge of analyzing and forecasting electricity demand within the service area of the Misamis Occidental II Electric Cooperative, Inc. (MOELCI-II) in the Philippines. The study employs advanced time series analysis techniques, specifically the ARIMA model, to unravel historical trends, patterns, and nonstationary characteristics in electricity demand. The goal of the study is to present a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the energy consumption in the MOELCI-II service area. The researchers obtained electricity consumption information for MOELCI-II through the Department of Energy website. The ARIMA (2,1,0) model is meticulously selected based on the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots, showcasing the necessity of differencing and autoregressive components. The researchers also assess the goodness of fit of the ARIMA model. The forecast for electricity shows a persistent upward trend in electricity demand for (MOELCI-II) is evident in the coming years. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) analysis are used to determine how accurate a prediction is. The values that our ARIMA model produced are considered acceptable.
Keywords ARIMA, Coincident Peak, Electricity Demand, Forecasting, Time series
Field Engineering
Published In Volume 7, Issue 4, July-August 2025
Published On 2025-08-01
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i04.47838
Short DOI https://doi.org/g9vzjc
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