International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

E-ISSN: 2582-2160   •   Impact Factor: 9.24

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A Time Series Forecast of Deployment Trends among Overseas Filipino Workers using ARIMA

Author(s) Dether John Gorre, Florence Jean B Talirongan
Country Philippines
Abstract Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) have long been a vital lifeline for the Philippine economy, especially highly skilled professionals whose work abroad sustains millions of Filipino families through their remittances. In this study, The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast how deployment trends might change for ten key OFW professions - including nurses, engineers, IT specialists, accountants, and teachers - from 2019 up to 2030. This forecast draws on actual deployment data between 2019 and 2024, which clearly shows the impact of events like the COVID-19 pandemic that temporarily disrupted overseas work. By applying ARIMA, the research uncovers patterns and provides practical estimates for future demand. Notably, nurses remain the most in-demand, but trends hint that demand may stabilize by 2030. Meanwhile, IT professionals and engineers are expected to maintain steady deployment, while roles like accountants and architects show moderate, stable numbers. These insights are meant to help policymakers, educators, and aspiring OFWs plan ahead, adapt skills training, and strengthen the Filipino workforce’s competitiveness in a changing global job market. Future work may explore combining ARIMA with other methods and economic indicators for even better forecasts. This study aims to support stakeholders who navigate the complex reality of sending Filipino talent overseas - a reality that touches countless Filipino households, including my own community.
Keywords Overseas Filipino Workers, OFW deployment, ARIMA forecasting, professional occupations
Published In Volume 7, Issue 4, July-August 2025
Published On 2025-08-02
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i04.51798
Short DOI https://doi.org/g9vzh3
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