Shaping India’s Financial Future: Digital Payments and Fintech as Parallel Pillars to Traditional Banking using Arima & Sarimax Model

Author(s)	Dr. Gautam Sen
Country	India
Abstract	Aim: To examine the impact of digital payments, fintech, and traditional banking on financial inclusion and transaction efficiency in India. Approach: The secondary data used from 2018 to 2024 with the incorporation of ARIMA, SARIMAX, and Granger-causality tests was conducted systematically to clarify the evolutionary directions and foresee upcoming arrangements in the fields of digitalization payments and fintech. Results: ARIMA and SARIMAX modelling came with the projection that transaction volumes will keep on growing consistently until 2029 to match the equivalent growth in digital payments with the UPI system. Implications: Policymakers ought to adapt these insights to develop policies that will enhance their participation and improve the financial system that will promote greater digital inclusion. Value Addition: The paper points out that the development of fintech and digital payments is independent but complementary, and a significant change in the financial ecosystem of India is likely in the future.
Keywords	UPI, Fintech, ARIMA, SARIMAX, P2P and P2M.
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 5, September-October 2025
Published On	2025-09-23
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i05.56221

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