Age as a Primary Determinant of ACL Injury Risk in Basketball: An Exposure‑Adjusted, Model‑Based Analysis

Author(s)	Mr. Nana Adi Appiah, Dr. Wei Wang, Mr. Lazarus Mensah Kwarteng
Country	China
Abstract	ACL injuries are a major cause of morbidity in basketball, yet the role of age in shaping risk, after adjusting for exposure, remains unclear. Using a synthetic seven-season player-season dataset (2018–2024; ~900 players, 6,300 player-seasons), we examined ACL injury counts per season with exposure hours as the denominator. Incidence rates per 1,000 h were summarized by age band. Regression models compared Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) approaches with exposure offsets. The final NB model included age (spline), sex, level, previous ACL, and training/biomechanical factors, with mixed-effects extensions for clustering. Incidence peaked in late adolescence (15–20 years), leveled at 21–24, and rose again after 25, indicating a nonlinear U-shaped pattern (p<0.01). Female sex and prior ACL increased risk, but age effects persisted. ACL injury risk in basketball varies nonlinearly with age, highlighting the importance of age-specific prevention strategies.
Keywords	ACL, Basketball, Age, Injury Rates, Negative Binomial
Field	Mathematics > Statistics
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 5, September-October 2025
Published On	2025-10-15
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i05.57587

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