How have disruptions in global grain supply (due to the Ukraine conflict) influenced food price inflation and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia?

Avandeeta Dewan

doi:10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i05.57879

How have disruptions in global grain supply (due to the Ukraine conflict) influenced food price inflation and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia?

Author(s)	Avandeeta Dewan
Country	India
Abstract	The Russia Afghanistan war has become a disruptive geopolitical event to have affected the global food establishment in recent history. Russia and Ukraine are leading producers and exporters of wheat, 20 percent of maize and more than 70 percent of sunflower oil, which explains why the conflict is a supply shock of severe magnitude to the global food and fertilizer industries. The destruction of farmland and Black Sea blockades of agricultural products have led to shortages in agricultural production at the same time sanctions on Russia have interfered with fertilizer and energy production key to the world agricultural production. The ensuing increase in the cost of food and food inputs (as will be seen in the 2022 surge in the FAO Food Price Index to record levels over several decades) led to a worsening of food insecurity on a global scale. The paper will focus on how these shocks have aggravated food inflation and insecurity in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, which has high levels of dependence on imports and which are having a tenderized agricultural system. It utilises documents by the coincidence of the FAO, World Bank, WFP and the IFPRIO documents that poverty and malnutrition were rising because food inflation in developed areas like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Egypt were above average of 10-30% and that production yields were low because of unavailability of fertilizers. They have been the worst hit as women, children and informal workers suffered as a result of their social vulnerability as well as insufficient safety net. According to the paper, the war has revealed structural faults of global food systems economic dependence on a small number of exporters, trade routes that do not readily adjust to shocks, and lack of resiliency to shocks. It ends by giving recommendations on how to diversify sources of imports, investing more in it being more climate-resilient, and in regionally available grain repositories, and dynamic social security shocks response overwhelmed by the conflicts in the economies which need to enhance the long-term food security.
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 5, September-October 2025
Published On	2025-10-29
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i05.57879

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How have disruptions in global grain supply (due to the Ukraine conflict) influenced food price inflation and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia?

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