Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: An Extensive Analysis of Theory, Observations, and Modeling

Author(s)	Bushra Khamis Al Saadi
Country	Oman
Abstract	Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclone is a critical forecasting and risk issue, especially in the Arabian Sea where cyclones can intensify near the shore. This paper provides a secondary observational synthesis of tropical cyclone potential intensity plus rapid intensification in the Arabian Sea in 1980-2023, which combines data on best-track data, reanalysis output, and published modeling research. In the Arabian Sea, cyclones are estimated to have about 30-45 percent of occurrence of RI episode with strong seasonal bias towards the pre-monsoon season. Although patterns of total cyclone frequency are insignificant, RI has also risen by about 1.5- 2 folds since late 1990s. The escalating storms are always observed in the environment with weak vertical wind shear, increased mid-tropospheric moisture, increased upper-ocean heat content and increased potential intensity. The synthesis shows that recent growth in RI has been stimulated by the growth of thermodynamic favourability linked to ocean warming and not by the growth of storm genesis.
Keywords	Tropical cyclones; Rapid intensification; Potential intensity; Arabian Sea; Upper- ocean heat content; Vertical wind shear; Climate variability.
Field	Sociology > Geology
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 1, January-February 2026
Published On	2026-01-02
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i01.64941
Short DOI	https://doi.org/hbhrc2

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