Tourism patterns in Kashmir: Assessing the impact of threat-related events on visitor behaviour and economic growth.

Namour Iqbal; Abhinav Mishra

doi:10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i02.70991

Tourism patterns in Kashmir: Assessing the impact of threat-related events on visitor behaviour and economic growth.

Author(s)	Ms. Namour Iqbal, Dr. Abhinav Mishra
Country	India
Abstract	Tourism in conflict-sensitive regions is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in perceived and actual security conditions. The present study examines the effect of terror-related incidents on tourist flow in Srinagar, Kashmir, and evaluates the consequent economic implications for local stakeholders. Using a quantitative cross-sectional research design, primary data were collected from 200 respondents, comprising 100 tourists and 100 residents whose livelihoods may or may not depend on tourism. Structured questionnaires were administered to assess perceived threat impact, business sustainability, risk perception, experiential safety, and loyalty intentions. Data were analysed using SPSS, including descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, correlation, and multiple regression. The findings reveal a significant negative relationship between perceived threat impact and business stability among local stakeholders, indicating that terror-related disturbances directly undermine tourism-dependent livelihoods. However, a notable perception–experience gap was identified among tourists. While a substantial proportion of respondents reported moderate to high safety concerns before their visit, the majority reported feeling secure during their stay and demonstrated strong revisit and recommendation intentions. Regression analysis further established that actual security experience and positive interaction with locals significantly predict tourist loyalty, outweighing the influence of pre-visit risk perception. The study highlights the paradoxical resilience of Srinagar’s tourism sector: although episodic instability disrupts tourist inflows in the short term, positive experiential outcomes help rebuild confidence rapidly. The results underscore the importance of managing destination perception alongside ensuring on-ground security. Strengthening crisis communication strategies and enhancing local-tourist engagement may be effective mechanisms to mitigate the adverse effects of terror-related incidents on tourism sustainability.
Keywords	Tourism risk perception, Security-related events, Tourist behavioural response, Regional economic growth, Tourism resilience
Field	Sociology > Tourism / Transport
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 2, March-April 2026
Published On	2026-03-09
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i02.70991

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Tourism patterns in Kashmir: Assessing the impact of threat-related events on visitor behaviour and economic growth.

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