Ensemble Neuro-Computing for Early Software Cost Estimation: Predictive Accuracy, Risk Reduction, and Economic Decision Impact

Debanjan Ghosh; Arvind Kumar Pandey

Ensemble Neuro-Computing for Early Software Cost Estimation: Predictive Accuracy, Risk Reduction, and Economic Decision Impact

Author(s)	Mr. Debanjan Ghosh, Dr. Arvind Kumar Pandey
Country	India
Abstract	Effective planning, pricing, and general project success depend on accurate cost estimating in the early stages of software development. Traditional estimation techniques, nevertheless, have difficulty properly representing nonlinear correlations and managing uncertainty owing to incomplete beginning criteria. Early-stage software cost estimating might be improved using an ensemble-based neural framework based on multilayer perceptron networks suggested in this study. The method enhances prediction accuracy, stability, and generalising by means of several separately trained models. Experimental data on reference datasets indicate that the suggested model beats regression methods, single neural networks, and standard algorithmic approaches. Important changes are seen in major assessment criteria, including decreased MMRE (below 0.30), smaller RMSE (76.1), and higher PRED (25), therefore showing more dependable forecasts. Along with technical performance, the study presents an Economic Risk Reduction Index (ERRI) meant to evaluate the real-world effects of enhanced estimating. The results indicate that improved accuracy lowers estimation risk to about 4.1%, therefore promoting better-informed pricing, effective resource distribution, and less financial uncertainty. Overall, the suggested framework not only raises the accuracy of estimations but also helps software projects to make better decisions and control costs.
Keywords	Software Cost Estimation, Ensemble Learning, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Prediction Accuracy, Economic Risk Reduction (ERRI), Early-Stage Software Development
Field	Computer > Artificial Intelligence / Simulation / Virtual Reality
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 2, March-April 2026
Published On	2026-04-19

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Ensemble Neuro-Computing for Early Software Cost Estimation: Predictive Accuracy, Risk Reduction, and Economic Decision Impact

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