Asymmetric Resilience to War: Growth, Volatility, and Post-Conflict Recovery in a Global Panel

Pranav D. Dudhal; Swapna Saoji

doi:10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i03.77092

Asymmetric Resilience to War: Growth, Volatility, and Post-Conflict Recovery in a Global Panel

Author(s)	Mr. Pranav D. Dudhal, Dr. Swapna Saoji
Country	India
Abstract	In establishing what the broader macro-economic implications of armed conflict are, we find that understanding these effects remains a key challenge for development economists. To contribute to this debate, this study will use an integrated data pipeline using both Global Conflict Data from UCDPR and from other sources, and World Bank Macroeconomic Indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and external shocks (oil prices). A total of 217 countries have been analysed across the period of 2000-2024. Panel econometric models and machine learning will be employed to investigate how conflict exposure affects GDP growth and to explore trade openness, financial volatility, and external shocks as potential transmission channels. The results of our fixed effects regressions and event study analysis indicate that there is a modest negative relationship between direct conflict exposure and GDP growth; however, the very low frequency of conflict observations makes it difficult to estimate statistically. In contrast, trade openness was positively associated with growth, whereas measures of macro volatility (both output and exchange-rate volatility) were negatively related to growth. Machine learning models (XGBoost) yielded little predictive ability for growth, with key predictors being past GDP, inflation, and terms of trade shocks. The most important contribution of this paper is the construction of a comprehensive conflict-macroeconomic dataset and the systematic investigation of multi-channel effects. Additionally, we illustrate the important limitations in the data (namely, sparseness of conflict data and extensive imputations) that limit causal interpretation. Therefore, these findings clarify the economic ripple effects of conflict and guide future work on improving data and methods in conflict economics.
Keywords	War economics, macroeconomic volatility, panel data, event study, post-conflict recovery, armed conflict, economic growth, fixed effects, trade openness, machine learning, data integration.
Field	Sociology > Economics
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 3, May-June 2026
Published On	2026-05-03
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i03.77092

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Asymmetric Resilience to War: Growth, Volatility, and Post-Conflict Recovery in a Global Panel

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