The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Turkish Industry Exports

Author(s)	Maryem Salme Bedda
Country	Turkey
Abstract	The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on exports has attracted considerable attention from economic scholars in Türkiye. However, the results in this field have been inconclusive and limited on the sectoral level. To address this gap, the present research undertakes an examination of the impact of exchange rate volatility on industry level exports using quarterly data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye and the Turkish Statistical Institute databases for the period from 2013Q1 to 2025Q1. The study estimates the impact of the real effective exchange rate using the ARDL bounds approach and error correction mechanism; with a focus on critical variables including Gross Domestic Product, Labor force, Net Taxes and Foreign Direct Investment. The outcome of ARDL analysis indicates that there’s a significant effect of REER on industry exports in both short and long term. Reliability of the findings was confirmed using multiple diagnostic tests.
Keywords	ARDL, Exchange Rate, Industry Exports, Türkiye
Field	Mathematics > Economy / Commerce
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 3, May-June 2026
Published On	2026-05-26
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i03.79600

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