International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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Towards Sustainable Enhanced Rice Production for Meeting Food Grain Self-sufficiency: A Strategic Food Outlooks of Bangladesh By 2030 And 2050

Author(s) S. M. Bokhtiar, S.M. Fakhrul Islam, M. M. Uddin Molla, A. Salam, M.A Rashid
Country Bangladesh
Abstract The present study forecasted the demand and supply of food grains in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050, by using Box and Jenkin’s ARIMA model. It is the 8th most populous country in the world. Cereals provide a major part of the calorie intake in Bangladesh, but their share in the total calorie supply is predicted to decrease over the years, while it is from non-cereal items will have an increasing trend from 2030 to 2050. The total crop demand for rice is projected to be 39.1 MMTs in 2030 and 42.6 MMTs in 2050. The Business as Usual Scenario predicted that there will be a marginal surplus of rice in 2030 and 2050 but the pessimistic scenario projected that there could be a deficit of 3.62 MMTs in 2030 and 1.93 MMTs in 2050 due to climatic shocks. Although the country has achieved self-sufficiency in rice, the projections reflected that its food security could be threatened due to natural calamities. Supportive government policy with increased investment in research and extension is needed for generating climate-resilient high-yielding rice varieties with production technology and requiring the establishment of a strategic rice grain reserve for the country to meet emergency food crises during natural calamities.
Keywords Demand for and supply of food grain, climate change, food security, and government policy,
Field Biology > Agriculture / Botany
Published In Volume 5, Issue 6, November-December 2023
Published On 2023-11-12
Cite This Towards Sustainable Enhanced Rice Production for Meeting Food Grain Self-sufficiency: A Strategic Food Outlooks of Bangladesh By 2030 And 2050 - S. M. Bokhtiar, S.M. Fakhrul Islam, M. M. Uddin Molla, A. Salam, M.A Rashid - IJFMR Volume 5, Issue 6, November-December 2023. DOI 10.36948/ijfmr.2023.v05i06.8230
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2023.v05i06.8230
Short DOI https://doi.org/gs4xtv

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