International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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Second Trump Administration: India's Challenges and Prospects

Author(s) Dr. Steven Reign
Country India
Abstract The return of Donald J. Trump to the United States presidency in January 2025 inaugurated a markedly transactional phase in India–United States relations. Within eighteen months the relationship swung from the optimism of a February 2025 joint statement envisioning a Bilateral Trade Agreement, through an acute 2025 crisis marked by punitive tariffs of up to 50 percent and a $100,000 H-1B visa fee, to a February 2026 interim trade deal that lowered tariffs to 18 percent and reset diplomatic momentum. This paper applies a structured research framework combining Neoclassical Realism, Liberal Institutionalism, and a transactional-bargaining model to analyze the drivers, mechanisms, and consequences of this volatility for India. It examines four interlocking domains: trade and tariff policy, immigration and human-capital mobility, strategic and defence cooperation under the Quad and Indo-Pacific architecture, and the geopolitical triangle involving Russia, China, and Pakistan. The paper argues that India's central challenge under the second Trump administration is managing structural asymmetry and policy unpredictability while preserving strategic autonomy, and that its prospects depend on diversifying economic partnerships, accelerating domestic manufacturing and defence-industrial reform, and institutionalizing ties that can withstand personality-driven diplomacy. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Indian foreign policy practitioners.
Keywords India-US relations, Trump administration, tariffs, H-1B visa, Quad, Indo-Pacific, strategic autonomy, trade policy
Published In Volume 8, Issue 4, July-August 2026
Published On 2026-07-11
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i04.83536
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