International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research
E-ISSN: 2582-2160
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A Widely Indexed Open Access Peer Reviewed Multidisciplinary Bi-monthly Scholarly International Journal
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Volume 8 Issue 4
July-August 2026
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El Nino in a Warming World: Science, Impacts, and the 2026 Forecast
| Author(s) | Prof. Dr. S Ramaswamy, Dr. S Gnanasaranya, Dr. V Kaveri, Dr. M.S Fathima Begam |
|---|---|
| Country | India |
| Abstract | El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stands as the most significant driver of interannual climate variability globally. Originating from periodic sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño triggers large-scale atmospheric reconfigurations that fundamentally alter precipitation patterns, temperature regimes, storm tracks, and ocean productivity across all inhabited continents. This review synthesises the historical scientific evolution of ENSO, tracing the progression from early twentieth-century observations by Peruvian fishermen and Indian monsoon meteorologists to the foundational work of Gilbert Walker and Jacob Bjerknes. It further highlights the transition from conceptual frameworks to modern coupled ocean–atmosphere models and satellite-era predictive capabilities. The scope of this analysis spans the multifaceted impacts of El Niño, examining its consequences for agriculture and food security, marine ecosystem stability, water resource management, public health, energy demand, and macroeconomic stability. By surveying the differentiated regional footprints across the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Australia, and Africa, the review provides a comprehensive look at how this phenomenon reshapes terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. Finally, the analysis evaluates the emerging 2026 El Niño event—projected to be among the strongest on record—within the context of anthropogenic climate change. It concludes by assessing the efficacy of current early-warning systems and adaptation strategies essential for mitigating the profound human and ecological vulnerabilities inherent to this global climate driver. |
| Keywords | El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Climate Variability, Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling, Global Food Security, Marine Ecosystems, Anthropogenic Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction, Predictive Modelling |
| Published In | Volume 8, Issue 4, July-August 2026 |
| Published On | 2026-07-19 |
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E-ISSN 2582-2160
CrossRef DOI prefix of IJFMR is 10.36948/ijfmr
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