Impact of Usa–iran War on Indian Petroleum Businesses

Kush Dahima; Dr. Devendra Shrimali

Impact of Usa–iran War on Indian Petroleum Businesses

Author(s)	Mr. Kush Dahima, Dr. Devendra Shrimali
Country	India
Abstract	The outbreak of armed hostilities between the United States and Iran in late February 2026 has precipitated what the International Energy Agency has characterised as the most severe global energy security crisis in recorded history. For India — a country that relies on imports for approximately 88–90 percent of its crude oil requirements — this geopolitical rupture arrived at a moment of considerable structural vulnerability. This paper examines the cascading consequences of the USA–Iran conflict on India’s petroleum businesses, with focused attention on the oil marketing companies (OMCs) — Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) — as well as on the upstream and refining operations of Reliance Industries. Drawing on secondary data sourced from the Reserve Bank of India, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, World Bank commodity reports, Bloomberg terminals, and credible financial journalism spanning March–April 2026, this study employs trend analysis, a structured pre-war versus post-war comparison, and a correlation-based review of oil price movements against company equity performance. The principal findings reveal that Brent crude prices surged from approximately USD 72 per barrel before the conflict to a peak of nearly USD 120 per barrel in March 2026, the Indian rupee depreciated to record lows beyond INR 95 per USD, and the stocks of downstream OMCs fell 10–14 percent within weeks. While upstream producers such as ONGC benefited from enhanced realisations, the broader macroeconomic consequences — encompassing imported inflation, a widening current account deficit, and suppressed consumer spending — pose substantial medium-term risks to the Indian economy. The paper concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations directed at source diversification, expanding India’s strategic petroleum reserve, rupee internationalisation in oil trade, and an accelerated transition toward renewable energy.
Keywords	USA–Iran War, Oil Price Shock, Indian Petroleum Sector, Strait of Hormuz, IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, Reliance Industries, Rupee Depreciation, Energy Security
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 4, July-August 2026
Published On	2026-08-22

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Impact of Usa–iran War on Indian Petroleum Businesses

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