Changing Wheat- Paddy Cropping Pattern in Haryana: Growth, Productivity Trends and Instability Analysis

Garima

Changing Wheat- Paddy Cropping Pattern in Haryana: Growth, Productivity Trends and Instability Analysis

Author(s)	Ms. Garima
Country	India
Abstract	Haryana is one of the significant states in India contributing to the food-grain production and the traditional farming system has been rice–wheat cropping system. This study deals with the wheat and paddy/rice change in the area, production and productivity during the period of last 15 agricultural years 2010-11 to 2024-25 in Haryana in which secondary annual data has been collected from agricultural statistics of Haryana government, Economic Surveys and Statistical Abstracts. The following methods were employed: compound annual growth rates (CAGR), linear trend regression, coefficient of variation (CV), and the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index (CDVI) and Pearson correlation. The aggregates suggest very weak overall wheat growth in wheat area (0.18% per year) relative to wheat production (1.15%) and wheat yield (0.96%). Growth rate in area and production is significantly higher for paddy in case of paddy [2.83% and 5.30% respectively] while growth rate in yield is slightly higher [2.40%]. No significant correlation is found between wheat and paddy areas at the 5% level with the value of r = −0.366, p = 0.180 for wheat and paddy area correlation and r = 0.101, p = 0.719 for wheat and paddy production correlation. Thus, there is no statistically significant direct wheat–paddy substitution effect evident in the analysis. The analysis therefore, does not provide evidences of direct wheat–paddy area substitution. But the findings indicate that the cropping pattern in Haryana would remain focussed on two cereals and expansion of paddy would be accompanied by a shift in the other kharif crops. The paper also discusses implications for water-resource sustainability and crop-diversification policy. A data quality audit is included because there are no annual official series and the statistical findings are intended to be analyzed in the series that have been compiled, not as causal estimates.
Keywords	Haryana, wheat, paddy, rice, cropping pattern, CAGR, productivity
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 3, May-June 2026
Published On	2026-06-05

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Changing Wheat- Paddy Cropping Pattern in Haryana: Growth, Productivity Trends and Instability Analysis

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