International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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A Comparative Study Of Regional Trends In Fertility: Examples From Nepal

Author(s) Mr. Mana Shant Maharjan
Country Nepal
Abstract Nepal has undergone a dramatic demographic transition, evolving from high fertility to below-replacement levels. However, significant regional, socio-economic, and gender disparities persist across its geographical landscape. This study conducts a detailed mathematical modeling and elasticity analysis, based on Nepal Census 2021 fertility data. Parity Progression Ratios (PPR) were computed across birth orders to evaluate childbearing trajectories and stopping behaviors. In order to quantify structural responsiveness, Elasticity was estimated. It was seen that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) estimates derived from the PPR framework yielded higher values than census estimates in six out of seven provinces, except Madhesh, where the Census TFR (2.850) exceeded the PPR estimate (2.419). Cohort analysis showed lower parity progression among women aged 20–35 (completed TFR of 1.65) compared to those aged 35–49 (completed TFR of 2.72). Regarding marriage timing, the expected age at first marriage was 18.98 years for females and 22.24 years for males. While 41.08% of female, first marriages occurred before age 18 nationally—peaking at 52.21% in Madhesh Province—only 15.39% of male marriages occurred before 18. Elasticity of PPR transitioned from inelastic (|E|<1) at parity one to highly elastic (|E|>1) at parity two and above, with the highest sensitivity observed in the Kathmandu Valley. However, Madhesh and Karnali provinces exhibited |E|<1.Hence it could be concluded that, Nepal's overall fertility decline is primarily driven by urban parity stopping after two children and delayed marriage, whereas rural, lowland, and mountain provinces maintain higher parity progression and earlier marriage patterns.
Keywords Parity progression ratio, Birth order, Total fertility rate, Marital fertility, Age at first marriage, Elasticity, Cumulative distributive function.
Field Mathematics > Statistics
Published In Volume 8, Issue 5, September-October 2026
Published On 2026-09-05
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i05.87190
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