International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

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A Widely Indexed Open Access Peer Reviewed Multidisciplinary Bi-monthly Scholarly International Journal

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UPI in India: A Trend Analysis of Transaction Volume and Value

Author(s) Manjula R, Dhamayanthi P T
Country India
Abstract Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become the backbone of retail digital payments in India. This paper analyses the trend in monthly UPI transaction volume and value over 13 months, from June 2025 to June 2026, using secondary data published by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI). Descriptive statistics, month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates, linear and log-linear trend models, compound monthly growth rate (CMGR), the Mann–Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation were applied.
Monthly volume rose from 18,395.01 million to 22,716.08 million transactions (+23.49 per cent), a CMGR of 1.77 per cent. Monthly value rose from ₹24.04 lakh crore to ₹28.92 lakh crore (+20.31 per cent), a CMGR of 1.55 per cent. Both trends are statistically significant (p < 0.001; R² = 0.858 for volume and 0.846 for value). Average daily volume increased in every one of the 12 months observed, from 613 million to 757 million, so the apparent monthly dips arise from shorter months rather than falling usage.
Over the full period, volume and value moved almost in proportion (r = 0.976; elasticity 1.02), and average ticket size showed no significant trend, staying near ₹1,291. Since February 2026, however, average daily volume rose 4.0 per cent while average daily value rose only 0.6 per cent, and ticket size fell for four consecutive months to ₹1,273 in June 2026. The results show that UPI growth remains strong and broad-based at its present scale, with early signs of a shift toward more frequent, smaller-value payments.
Keywords Unified Payments Interface, digital payments, trend analysis, compound growth rate, Mann–Kendall test, NPCI, India
Field Mathematics > Economy / Commerce
Published In Volume 8, Issue 4, July-August 2026
Published On 2026-07-05
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i04.89043

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