International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

E-ISSN: 2582-2160   •   Impact Factor: 9.24

A Widely Indexed Open Access Peer Reviewed Multidisciplinary Bi-monthly Scholarly International Journal

Call for Paper Volume 8, Issue 5 (September-October 2026) Submit your research before last 3 days of October to publish your research paper in the issue of September-October.
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Volume 8 Issue 5
September-October 2026

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The winning formula for an NBA team

Author(s) Viraj Lohchab
Country India
Abstract This study identifies the critical game statistics that determine the regular-season win-loss percentage of National Basketball Association (NBA) teams. Utilizing box-score statistics from the past 20 years, a dataset comprising 600 team-season observations and 25 distinct variables was compiled. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation to evaluate predictive power and forecasting accuracy. In the concurrent descriptive model, point differential (PD), effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and turnover percentage (TO%) emerged as the most critical statistics, accurately explaining team performance (Adjusted R² > 0.92). However, predictive accuracy dropped significantly when forecasting a team’s future win-loss percentage using prior-season data (Adjusted R² = 0.44), with a substantially higher standard error. Prior-season PD, average roster age, and total player salary bills were identified as the key forecasting variables. This inherent predictive volatility underscores the league's competitive balance, contributing to rising viewership, escalating league revenues, and growing team payrolls over the past decade. Finally, individual historical team performance trends are evaluated alongside a novel 'Return on Salary' metric, revealing distinct shifts in the modern strategic evolution of the game.
Keywords NBA, Basketball, Statistics, Economics
Field Mathematics > Statistics
Published In Volume 8, Issue 5, September-October 2026
Published On 2026-10-11
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i05.89353
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E-ISSN 2582-2160
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CrossRef DOI prefix of IJFMR is 10.36948/ijfmr

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