International Journal For Multidisciplinary Research

E-ISSN: 2582-2160   •   Impact Factor: 9.24

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Emergency Cash Buffers and Investment Outcomes During Income Shocks in India

Author(s) Ms. Harini R, Mr. Srihari V, Mr. Sreekar Gopavarapu
Country India
Abstract This study examines how emergency-reserve size and withdrawal order affect equity liquidation, reserve recovery and investment-goal affordability for synthetic asset-owning Indian households. A deterministic historical simulation combines monthly Nifty 50 Total Return Index and adjusted HDFC Liquid Fund Direct Growth returns for January 2014 to December 2025. Forty-five scenario definitions, seven reserve sizes and 85 overlapping five-year windows produce 26,775 conditional paths. Household extensions use published urban spending and earnings benchmarks while explicitly varying saving capacity. For the original household facing full income loss during months 12 to 17, a six-month reserve reduces mean spending-funded equity sales from Rs250,000 to Rs5,777, but lowers mean terminal wealth from Rs2,394,214 to Rs2,278,077. Seven months is the smallest tested reserve that eliminates equity sales in every window for this scenario. The six-month policy increases the mean of the lowest 10% of wealth outcomes by Rs35,445 relative to zero reserve. Yet its goal-success share falls from 12.9% to 0% when a common terminal reserve must also be retained. No path with a 5% or 10% initial saving share rebuilds the six-month reserve within the horizon after the full interruption. These findings distinguish immediate spending protection from long-term affordability and recovery capacity. They support conditional policy comparisons rather than a universal reserve recommendation or estimated future success probability.
Keywords Emergency Savings, Household Finance, Income Shocks, Liquidity Reserves, Goal Affordability, India, Historical Simulation
Published In Volume 8, Issue 5, September-October 2026
Published On 2026-10-24
DOI https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i05.90517
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CrossRef DOI prefix of IJFMR is 10.36948/ijfmr

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