A Hybrid Variance-Possibility Ranking Approach for Fuzzy Critical Path Analysis

Author(s)	Dr. K. Pramila
Country	India
Abstract	The success of a project hinges on effective planning, scheduling, and task management to minimize completion time. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is a cornerstone technique for identifying critical tasks and constructing optimal schedules. However, traditional CPM relies on crisp activity durations, which are often impractical due to real-world uncertainties. This ambiguity introduces fuzziness in time estimates, necessitating the use of fuzzy numbers to model activity durations. Numerous researchers have proposed fuzzy CPM techniques ranging from defuzzification to possibility theory. Existing methods often overlook the interplay between magnitude, uncertainty, and risk sensitivity. To bridge this gap, a hybrid approach is proposed that integrates adaptive centroid, variance and possibility in ranking index.This hybrid approach enables robust critical path identification in fuzzy project networks, enhancing decision-making under uncertainty.
Keywords	Critical path, fuzzy number, risk index, possibility theory
Field	Mathematics
Published In	Volume 8, Issue 3, May-June 2026
Published On	2026-06-02
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2026.v08i03.79704

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